WITH all of the talk in Milpitas about big residential projects looming on all sides of the proposed BART station near GreatMall, one might assume we'll be seeing those trains chugging through town almost any day now. After all, we voted to bring BART through from Fremont almost eight years ago by enacting a half-cent increase in our sales taxes for 30 years.

The way it looks now, it just might be 30 years before the BART project into Santa Clara County is done. And then again, perhaps it might never be completed. What ever happened to the old saw: "Is this any way to run a railroad?"

The Valley Transportation Authority has a board that is made up of elected officials from the various cities as well as the county supervisors. Milpitas doesn't have any representation on the board at present and it might be years before it regains a seat. One of the valid criticisms of the VTA is that all of its directors rotate in and out and few have developed a deep knowledge of transportation or transit issues.

Recently VTA held a workshop to upgrade the board's perceptions of what is happening. As General Manager Michael Burns explained, the expected tax money isn't going to come near to funding all of the projects voters were promised.

In fact, the BART project alone now has reached more than $6.5 billion and is rising. Remember when it was estimated as a fraction of that just a couple of years ago. The current guess includes a factor for inflation and rising construction

costs. And, the list of other projects the VTA wants to see built totals almost $3.3 billion.

One significant project, the light-rail line out to Eastridge from Alum Rock Avenue, is expected to cost at least $334 million. The 2.6-mile extension is only likely to lure about 2,000 riders a day. Not much of a payback for such a costly project.

Of the 13 non-BART projects the VTA hopes to add, about half would serve the communities on the west side of the valley and center on the Caltrain service which VTA supports as well. And nearly $700 million is going toward bus improvements, particularly to serve the East Valley along Alum Rock and Santa Clara Street. But the VTA tax yields are diminishing as the economy tightens and overblown projections fall short. By 2036 the tax is expected to bring in only $8.7 billion to fund nearly $10 billion in projects.

Much of the rosy scenarios for BART and expanded transit rested on the idea of additional tax increases coming along as chunks of the system were completed. The climate for a new tax, however, is decidedly unfavorable.

So what does a beleaguered VTA board do? At this juncture, it would appear that a consensus is ready to chop BART down to a piece-at-a-time schedule. And even bringing it to Berryessa just beyond Milpitas will prove to be a costly and unsatisfying compromise. Can any sizeable fraction of the promised high ridership be achieved coming down those few miles from Alameda County?

Even if the limited expansion of BART were to go forward, it is likely it would be 2018, at least 10 years from now, before the project got as far as Berryessa. Putting the trains underground through downtown San Jose and on to Santa Clara is likely to be another decade into the future.

The VTA board must wrestle with these conundrums: Should light rail be continued at the cost of BART? Should BART be continued as a project when it appears the continued cost growth could one day take every dollar the sales tax contributes? How can the commitments to the cities served by Caltrain be met with all the other financial pressures? And how about that people-mover to the airport at a mere $655 million?

VTA's Burns summed it up succinctly when he said, "Clearly, we can't afford all the projects." Some amputations are called for and it could get bloody.